By Dr. Carmen Schaye, NWPC Vice President of Diversity
Candidates and voters in 2022 primary election battles across the nation have taken the opportunities to send crucial messages about November’s upcoming elections. Key takeaways include Republicans rallying to elect Trump supporters, Democrats rallying around women’s reproductive health, and an uncertain future for the Biden Administration as Democrats struggle for control of the 117th Congress, holding a slim majority in the House of Representatives, and effectively a 50-50 split in the Senate, 48 Democrats caucusing with 2 Independents. If the Democrats lose their majority in the House, or their advantage in the Senate, Republicans led by Trump will strategically obstruct the Biden Administration’s recent tangible popular successes passing the Inflation Reduction Act, student debt relief, and protecting women’s reproductive health.
Across battleground states that have decided the 2020 vote, Republican candidates for the 2022 primaries who deny the legitimacy of the Biden Presidency and run campaigns in support of Trump have won nearly two-thirds of Republican nominations for tightly contested November elections in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump supporting campaigns in many cases endorse conspiracy theories regarding Democrats and President Biden, and want to eliminate mail-in ballots, ballot drop boxes, and greater access to voter registration. Just 2 of the 10 impeachment-supporting Republicans will be back in the House next year. Incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney illustrates this key takeaway from the Wyoming Congressional Republican primary, losing her seat largely because of her role as Vice Chair of the House January 6th Committee, and leading critic of Trump from within the Republican Party.
Democrats have gained momentum since the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
12 states now have near-total bans on abortion and as many as 1 in 3 women have lost access to abortion. Despite Biden’s low approval ratings, reproductive rights for women have galvanized primary elections in conservative Kansas and New York’s 19th Congressional House special election in the Hudson Valley, Democrats favoring abortion rights defeating Republican efforts to restrict and ban women’s access to abortion.
Women have a special role to play in November’s general election, with 41% of likely voters motivated to vote specifically to support abortion, and 16% of likely voters to oppose abortion rights.
Now that the near-total abortion bans are in effect, facing a clear choice to vote for candidates who support the Supreme Court’s decision, or candidates who stand up for women’s reproductive rights, white women with college degrees have increased their support for pro-life candidates.
Progressive and conservative Democrats, Independents, and pro-choice Republicans have coalesced behind protecting women’s reproductive rights, making November’s vote clear for many voters. Among persuadable voters who have not made up their mind about their vote, polls indicate a positive momentum for Democrats with a 3% lead over Republicans.
However, after a promising first 100 days, Biden struggled to unite the Democratic caucus in Congress, with major obstruction within his own Party from Senator Joe Manchin and Senator Kristen Sinema, and Republicans still have a 2% lead in polls overall, down from the 6% lead Republicans had last spring.
Many Republicans continue to support Trump despite the raid of his Mar-A-Lago compound by the FBI to recover intentional mishandling of classified information, two impeachments, and the ongoing Select Committee to investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol for his role in an attempted coup against the United States.
However, 33% of voters are motivated to vote to stop Trump, compared to 21% of voters who say they will vote to support Trump.
Pocketbook issues remain central messages that resonate with voters, with concern over inflation and the economy central, as Democrats seek to overcome the Republican 2-point advantage with the momentum of a Party out of power. Yet since the Supreme Court rulings against abortion, Democrats will be pushed to define the line on limits on abortion, federal funding for the practice, and health care access, as Republicans defend unpopular positions curtailing women’s freedom, threatening women’s health, and supporting a former President who many believe participated in a violent coup attempt against the United States of America.
The results of the November midterms will heavily influence the successes and failures of the Biden Administration. If the Republicans gain a majority in the House, Republican House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy has shown his willingness to follow Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and other Trump supporting extremist positions, dangerous threats to democracy and the ability of the United States to self-govern itself. If Republicans gain a majority in the Senate, Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell may continue increasing federal bans on abortion and obstruction of the Biden administration. If Democrats can expand their seats, they may be able to pass the filibuster to implement more of Biden’s campaign promises, recommend prosecution for Trump and implement section 3 of the 14th Amendment to ban insurrection supporting politicians from running for office, and protect access to health care and voting. Regaining voter confidence and enthusiasm, the Democratic coalition needs to push hard for Party unity against the coming onslaught of Trump supporting campaigns targeting women, and democracy itself.
© Dr. Carmen Schaye
